Heavy Metals


 Greetings, friends-
Not a happy time for gold and silver bugs, sadly. Here's some mood music to set the tone . . .

 And what will surely upset gold and silver bugs even more is that my long absence from regular posting must needs continue for a while longer, but I see we still get a large number of loyal visitors daily, a few of them not bots, so with September in the books, I felt it incumbent upon me at very least to update some of my regular charts. Once again, the reversals on the two weekly three-line break charts below (with the first, as usual, being the leading indicator) have signaled the recent bear cycles in gold and silver.


My 2014 prediction that the GOLD/S&P500 ratio would hit the yellow line has come to fruition.

 Then the chart from my previous post did what I thought it would: the correlation (red) would reverse and become positive again soon--that was clear--and the only question for me was whether emerging market equities and silver would both move up or down together. The strong resistance line on EEM told me down was far more likely ... and sure enough silver just closed the week at its lowest level since February 2010 (!) ...
 I see $15 in play next, and I wouldn't rule out $12 before a long-term bull rally takes hold. My target (pink circle) here was on the money










My conviction that we won't see the low in gold until the "treasuries in silver" chart hits the green flanging wedge is also looking likely now, a year and a half later, with, unfortunately, still a ways to go:









[thoughts] On Predicting when Bullion will Return to GLD (FAILED PREDICTION) PLUS a new permanent spreadsheet resource

A number of months ago I predicted the return of some specific GLD bars, and I'm sorry to say they haven't yet returned and statistically there is now less than a 5% chance that they will. So that is a FAIL; my method for detection of unusual GLD withdrawals did not create an accurate prediction. I'm disappointed and it's back to researching that area. I will of course update this article if I ever see them back on the ledger, but because it's outside the three to four month range expected, I'm admitting defeat.

Sunday PM pre-game, 8/31/2014














Greetings friends-

Another month is in the books, and it very much looks like gold's year-long trading range is approaching its long-awaited denouement. The key chart is above ...

Sunday PM pre-game, 8/3/2014

 Hello friends -
As many have noticed, I'm still on an extended break.

At present, I'm not at liberty to reveal exactly what it is I've undertaken, but suffice it to say, I've found that the older I get, the less and less I worry about dying young.

Still I've found the time for a quick end-of-month chart dump. The most important chart is this one -- gold has fallen below its 20-30 week moving average ribbon. Buyers beware. Even though a move to $1350-60 may still be in the cards (based on some charts below the fold), that should be it -- so, risk is greater than reward here...




GLD Trade Spreadsheet vs GLD Bar List (Updated)


a quick question:

"Are there any significant discrepancies between the numbers in the GLD trade settlement spreadsheet and the GLD bar list?"