Once again I had a crazy week, though I'm happy to say I'm all moved in to my new place (though unfortunately now several work weeks behind) (lesson learned: moving sucks, which is a special case of the general law, everything takes 10X longer than planned). See, I decided to make a contrarian play and buy a condo. That's what contrarian investing is all about, right? Do what seems really counter-intuitive, even retarded to common sense. Since it seems obvious to me that soon (maybe in a few weeks) there's a good chance we'll all be skinning rodents with bowie knives and looking for animal hoof prints full of rainwater to slake our dysentery-driven thirst, what could be a wiser move than buying a well-appointed condo?
Speaking of contrarian indicators, I'm really enjoying the bearishness I perceive on the metals. I saw a comment from our friend Yukon Cornelius the other day, on Turd Ferguson's site, saying, basically, that the fear and dejection even there means it's probably a good time to buy. I agree. So long as these corrections continue to go as they have the past 3 years, with no serious technical damage, they are simply wonderful trading opportunities. Look at weekly gold: i predicted last week that we'd hit $1730 (center of lower channel), which was indeed where we closed the week. Then, had I had time for my typical Sunday preview yesterday, I would've said: it can go either way here, back up or back down to either trend line, but with options expiry on Tuesday, I'm betting on down. (I really would've said that, though if gold had gone up today, I probably wouldn't have told you I was going to say that). Now a continued fall to the bottom of the channel is very likely, although it may not necessarily happen this week. Be prepared for when we get there. This week, it would be around $1630.
On the daily chart, I'm really working in some nice colors, which is something that you must admit sets me apart from others who enjoy popping off about technical analysis.
Here's the interesting thing. The 144 day moving average (pink) is at $1650. So, my best guess is we compromise between the daily and weekly charts, and go down to the purple line this week, maybe tomorrow.
The great news is that the 200 day moving average (gold) (which is nearing $1600), is now at the red dotted line. That red line has been inpenetrable support since Jan 2009. So, if that gets broken, it means something catastrophic has happened, (although the term black swan should be retired because, let's face it, with criminal nihilists like Corzine and venal incompetents like [your senator's name here] running the show, some kind of world-historical catastrophe is a virtual certainty eventually, not some six sigma event or "tail risk" that the idiot savant (idiot saquant?) economists who will have blood on their hands like to talk about. A lot of good people around the world are going to suffer immensely for what? i'll tell you what, so that a bunch of glad-handing shit-eating politicians, effete parasitic bankers, and aspergery egghead economists, simple if not soulless creeps almost to a man, can live their sick dreams.
Here's the $GOLD:$USD chart, which looks like it should bounce off 21 in time for another gold rally.
As far as silver is concerned, it stubbornly refuses to fall out of this channel (on a closing basis) that I presented after the September takedown (actually I had posted the channel months earlier).
This version of the same chart (different trend lines) also shows support at 31.5, and as I mentioned last week, very strong support at $30 (on a closing basis):