Silver's where it's at right now. In my view, if we're going to see the metals break out of their 4 month slump, silver will lead the way. So, I have just one gold chart, the weekly.
The trend lines on this chart connect every closing price since 2008. There looks to be a symmetry in the recent action with the 2008 bottom.
I said on Christmas that the silver bottom would be in within 4 weeks. We will enter the fourth week on Tuesday, and I have no reason to change my forecast. I had calculated that in the coming week the 34- and 55-week MAs would cross, and that should indeed happen, with bullish ramifications, if historical patterns have any weight.
On the above weekly chart, it also looks like we broke out of the falling wedge. Barely, I'll admit, as an emphatic breakout was prevented yet again with a few very sudden, violent, high-volume, last-minute bear raids. This has been the case almost without exception since Labor Day. Still, my gut tells me that if the lower grey dotted line of the wedge was going to be tested, this would've been the week, and it wasn't; while the finish today +25 cents in closing hours was important. I think we're headed to $36 over the next few weeks.
I missed the breakout Monday, but I used the daily chart from last week to get in today *right* at the bottom ($29.45), which hopefully will be the final low before a strong ascent (see case 1, brown arrow). But, I'm not celebrating just yet, as there are 2 other strong possibilities that I consider more likely than others and that I want to be prepared for: Case 2 (see green arrow), in which we test the bottom of the light blue channel again, and it functions as support, confirming that the black down channel has been "trumped" by the longer term up channel; or Case 3 (see red arrow), in which we fall through the light blue channel, suggesting to me that the $26 red/green horizontal support line will also fail this time, and we will fall at least to the bottom of the downtrending black channel at $25. Don't get too aggressive!
I'm encouraged, though, partly because of the tell-tale 10-year treasury:silver ratio charts. The ratio seems to be falling like clockwork after denoting yet another bottom:
I'm also partially encouraged because the price action over the past few weeks has strongly resembled the pre-explosion bottom of 11 months ago:
It sustained a day of damage during the low-volume late December crash, but looks to be back on track.
Of course with looming events such as war with Iran (and possibly WWIII shortly thereafter) it feels kind of foolish to look at charts at all. Truth be told, as big a fan as I am of the metals, I'm afraid that our ruling elite fears and detests gold hoarders with such intensity, even more than they do serial killers and pedophiles, that it's hard for me to feel too encouraged that PM investments will ever be allowed to pay off in a really big way. But, so long as studying chart patterns continues to pay off for me, I'll keep studying them and sharing my ideas with you. Have a nice weekend, everybody.