Sunday pre-game, 7/1/2012


UPDATE: I attacked Turd Ferguson in this post on the grounds that he disrespected a Screwtape colleague. I have since reason to believe (as per Turdite and commenter LeGrew's insight) that I might have jumped the gun and accused him unfairly, so I have deleted that part of this post, which, upon reflection, was uncharacteristically nasty, on account of my oxycontin withdrawal pangs at the time. 

Alright, now to the metals. We had a big move to close the week and month. These charts all speak for themselves, but I will speak a few words for them regardless (in captions):

Gold YTD. Watch the 40-day exponential moving average, which I follow in place of the less informative 20-day.

 
The bottom of the monthly trend channel has been money in the bank for several quick trades (with tight stops). We finally broke the unprecedented string of red months, and you have to bet we're going up from here, but a 2008-like deflation scare could take us towards the 36-month MA



Big test for the "gold as safe haven" chart!

Silver bulls need to watch the 50 day moving average, then the green line.  Till then, outlook bearish, though as I said last week, I will not short.


34 comments:

Warren James said...

I could have given him additional tech help if he had wanted it, oh well - I guess he has bigger issues on his hands, since the issue doesn't seem to be fixed on the site itself.

VtC's comment was spot on: finding out who 'invited' Turd to do the podcast site would be very interesting indeed.

And of course I can't resist observing - any gains he/they make in the silver trading arena, are technically a loss for someone else. Too simplistic I know, but interesting what occurs when one moves from 'stacking' to 'fiat collection maximization'. So the 'salvation through silver' message is relative - correct for some, not for others - depending on where you sit in the framework.

Moving on already. Hopefully the metals show some strength soon, sentiment is low, it's about time they had some time in the sun.

bay said...

It's strange what's happening at Turds joint now. It wasnt always that way over there. My advice was always to stack some physical gold and silver and never trade against the HFT algos and the crooked banksters of Wall Street. Buy monthly or quarterly and cost average in. That way you dont get creamed on the price swings. So now Turd wants to tell me with a straight face that its possible to trade and beat them at their own Three Card Monte game? LOL, okay, good luck with that program.

I'm sorry, but it appears that the focus of "preparing" over there has now been put alongside with "gambling". That is a very different message, no matter how much experience in trading you may have.

Bay of Pigs

Jeanne d'Arc said...

@Bay of Pigs - In case you missed my comment on Warren's article - I was browsing today through some old Screwtape posts, and came across this one that I wrote, which focusses on the silverogosphere's accusations that we're all just a load of Bankster Shills. And I was surprised to see that you'd actually been quoted in it...

"Bay of Pigs: They [the Screwtape Files] are useless tools on gold or silver, IMO. Better off to ignore them. They have deadpanning [sic] gold and silver and supporting the MSM status quo since I can remember. They don't acknowledge anything being wrong/corrupted in the markets (especially the COMEX).

You posted it here, at TF Metals Report in January this year.

Are we now to assume that, post-expulsion from Turd's site, you've had chance to reconsider your earlier views about our humble site..? ;-)

JdA

bay said...

Thanks Jeanne,

No, I dont remember posting that at all. And no, I probably dont agree with much of anything you all say here about gold and silver. From the few posts I have read here, you dont appear to be supporters of the suppression issue at all. No problem, to each their own.

That said, I think the issues brought up about security and trading/gambling over there are totally valid arguments.

I do apologize for the abusive language used on that old post. That was wrong. I guess I just have a hard time understanding how some people can dismiss the widespread and pervasive fraud and corruption that exists everywhere in the markets and especially in the gold and silver sectors.

Good luck,
Bay of Pigs

GM Jenkins said...

Ah harsh JdA!! A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds!

And Bay makes the good point (echoing Warren) that prepare accordingly and try to beat the cartel at russian roulette aren't easy to reconcile.

I guess I just have a hard time understanding how some people can dismiss the widespread and pervasive fraud and corruption that exists everywhere in the markets and especially in the gold and silver sectors.

I personally don't dismiss it. I see ample means, motives, and opportunities for manipulation, as well as precedent (both historical and concurrent) so I question anyone who rules it out offhand. On the other hand, some of the loudest voices claiming pervasive suppression are the stupidest, which is why they need to be called out and fisked. I remember when the PSLV premium was 37% or whatever: Brian O'Flanagan wrote a post for us saying it meant nothing about silver supply and (echoing Kid Dynamite and others) that it would fall drastically. All the usual suspects fell for the propaganda. It's at 6% now and silver is several dollars lower.

Funky Tape said...

"They're like my stalkers."

Forgive me ole Turd, but I liken a "stalker" as someone who's secretly obsessed with another person, not someone (in this case a few) who makes no effort to hide at all. You wanna talk "stalker," then look at every blog post you've done over the past year - straight up stalking, Blythe, 'the cartel' bla bla bla. And for what? Lower prices in the metals and a lot of embarrassment? Fantastic! Way to go!

I have to give credit where credit is due and it's to Warren not to Turd or staff. Again, embarrassing.

And speaking of embarrassing, look it's Bay Of Pigs who used to tell those who suggested gold wasn't going to $2000 (with evidence or otherwise) that there were, in effect, a moron. {not a direct quote, just an indication of the attitude). I also remember him telling me specifically I didn't know what I was talking about on a few occasions based on comments I made in the Blog section, at least one in particular when I said there was not a fat chance in hell "QE3 was immanent" with crude hovering around $100. Opps.

Look, times change, the market swings, people change, attitudes do as well. I think we're all better for having gone through our own personal evolutions so I don't hold grudges against anyone. At one point, I defended the same stupid memes BOP did. I also questioned them just as much and that's how I found Kid, Screwtape and others that are more experienced and soothsayers of thyne bullshit.

I'll just close by saying I finally was able to get my grubby mitts on some Fiji Taku's I've been eyeing for a long damn time. I made a bet on another forum (where of course I was banned) that I'd be buying them for under $30 and was told I was an "idiot," "shill," "troll"....you know the drill. Point being: since I just bought, get ready cause silver's going to $9! LOL!

Warren James said...

What GM Jenkins said.

IMHO, finding the correct interpretations of fraud is essential. The Banksters have made an industry from hiding their FRAUD inside layers of legitimacy, making the theft harder to combat. Brilliant example is the mandatory house insurance I'm paying a premium for (to the bank), which is to protect an asset the bank owns.

Making the wrong assumptions about the market (e.g. that silver can't be bought in bulk without a large premium) can be a disaster even if the ideas are pointing in the right direction (e.g. that the prices of precious metals are 'managed').

At the core of this blog is the fact we were initially taken in by Wynter Benton's amazing messages about the silver market, who subsequently proved to be just another fraud ... we've been sharpening our knives ever since.

In the immortal words of S Roche, 'We are all learning'.

LeGrew said...

G.M.,"with not even a tip of the hat to Warren" : you seem to assume that Mr F. read Warren's commendable post. I question whether such assumption is fully warranted, and suggest then that you may have over-reacted. Hope to see you and your colleagues occasionally commenting still at the Golden Land O' Turd.
Respectfully,
LeGrew (aka Dudley Do-Right)

Warren James said...

@LeGrew, true - we're not showing the full picture ... we have knowledge of a private forum topic on Turd's which (according to the HTTP_REFERER value) links to our post - the URL is 'http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3905/we-have-problem'. If anyone has permission to read that node, we would love to find out what it contains.

That, along with Stephanies information tells us that they have awareness of it at least. I do at least recognise it's sometimes embarrasing to (1) acknowledge problems publicly or (2) receive help from an outside source, but the fact remains we spelt out an easy way to mitigate the issue and quickly restore peace in Turdtown. I also defended Turd's position against the complexities of technology.

IT wasn't taken in the spirit intended - and generally strengthens what I am learning personally, which is 'never help people'.

Turd will be invariably be struggling with the programmers and infrastructure he initially set the new site up with. If he wants some free help from me, the offer still stands (to help further) he could contact me at bullionbars (at) hotmail.com. Like I said, we admire the Turd and have common interests in protecting the common man from FRAUD. I'm not posting anonymously and I've nothing to hide. We are all learning, and watching this new gold market together. ;p

Warren James said...

But this is still one of my core faults, still defending people in the name of fixing things, when I should have moved on or discarded long ago. I am trying to learn from JdA who is not afraid to slice and dice where carving is deserved. For what it's worth I'm very glad of the valuable discussion these events generated.

Anyway we got bigger things to look at. I'm interested in what Silver and Gold will do in the next 6 months. I notice a few other people have noticed the cup-and-handle-formation in silver still forming (suggested it last year). Regards,

LeGrew said...

@Warren, that forum is on the paid site (which I have not joined). If one or more mods have read your post, perhaps Turdland may yet benefit from your attempt to be helpful!
You may not have seen the comment by (I think) S.Roche that rather reproached Turd for his attitude toward you when your post was clearly offered in a good spirit.

Anyway, just trying to lure you back a bit from the dark regions of 'never help people' (lol).

Best wishes,
LeGrew/DD

Warren James said...

Thanks LeGrew. If only you knew, the power of the dark side :)

In a moment of $15 curiosity, I registered on the paid site to check it out (with ssl). All the new posts are in the following format: "http://www.turdtalksmetals.com/tuesday-july-3-2012/", so I'm still curious about the 'we-have-problem' private thread on tfmetalsreport.com. Btw, they still haven't fixed any 'https' links, oh well. For what it's worth, I won't be writing about TF anymore (I think we're done).

Over the next 6 months I'm going to be cheering on the metals in boistrous fashion, because I think it's time for some gold rallies and silver rallies to take this baby over 2000 and 50 respectively. If the Mayans are wrong then the end-of-year BBQ will be even better [I am still of the opinion that my buddy Bernanke and his golden tie can steer us (and hoodwink us) out of this goddam mess, but that's just me].

GM Jenkins said...

Good points, Funky Tape, and the Fiji Taku is a hot coin.

LeGrew, you wrote: you seem to assume that Mr F. read Warren's commendable post.
I have no doubt he did - if you go back to the original thread I have in mind (sorry no time for link), he was notified of the security lapse with a link to our site, then rather than acknowledge it, he shot the messenger ("stalkers" - for two posts on him in the history of this website), then ignored exhortations to reconsider from some of his more sober commenters. I should've mentioned in the post that this behavior is part of a pattern and why he can't be trusted. Ignoring inconvenient facts and arguments and trying to brush them off with ad hominems.

Thanks for taking one for the team and ponying up the $15 Warren ;)

LeGrew said...

@GM: The night before Warren's post, TF commented as follows when someone asked him about Jeanne's post: "I really couldn't care less about what they say. They mean nothing to me." Kind of suggests to me that, link or no link, he may have not have bothered reading Warren's post. Nonetheless, I will watch for the pattern you identify.

LeGrew/DD

Mr T said...

Thanks for all the original stuff. at least you aren't a collator of all the crap on the net. Seems there are many many of those.

SilverGoldSilver has been dealt with long ago.

SilverDoc needs to be highlighted at some point too. Their headlines are always very emotional and like hard sell for silver. Case in point about the half oz mint stuff from Perth. Headline - sales increase 38fold - but when you go into the figures its from a base of 13000pa going to an absolute number of a woping 240k. They really are now just a selling shop of physical. They have more than enough of physical which they sell - no shortage there!!!!.

It's also great to start a "news" site - get a name - and then sell physical. At the end they will sell their physical to you!!!

Recently they had an article in which they pretended to give investment advice to someone who had lost a lot in silver - knowing they are a re-seller of physical - what do you think their advice is. Not to sell....

A bit of a conflict there, wouldn't you say?

Anyway that is why I do enjoy the level headed information here, especially the charts. THX

Pliny Younger said...

So, JDA...who is behind the slicksters, TF's new project. Please do share.

Kay Bea said...

JdA, I would not wait much longer to spill the beans...You will be banned from there to "only readable" status by Calamity Jane faster than green grass through a goose.

The Big Setup said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Big Setup said...

Not news about Lira doing the interview with Turd. He wanted me to promote it and I refused since being kicked off the site by that mouthy arrogant Turd.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

Whoops, I've been banned from the TF Metals Report so can no longer comment.

This would have been my last post...

@Stephanie: Good start. I look forward to you publishing the link where Turd explains how his new project is run by Gonzalo Lira. Because otherwise it might look like the new site was being portrayed as his own product, when it is in fact controlled by another businessman with an interest in pumping the price of precious metals. It was, of course, you (here), that let slip the fact that this was not Turd's initiative at all, but rather a commercial enterprise from another player.

Regardless - the interesting bit: behind Gonzalo Lira is...?

The Big Setup said...

I laughed at this suckers post, a guy who has been sucked in and brainwashed into a cult like following LOL:


lol, screwtape files is a bunch of butthurt commies mad about the success of others. GTFO.

I don't see ANY problem with a partnership with GL. He is a great guy, and I enjoy his writing. Two people partnering for mutual success is nothing but capitalism at work, and if you don't like it, I have a boot to place in your colon.

Hell, I was trying it out for a month. Just to piss these guys off, I'm going to buy a year long subscription.

Rick said...

The obsession with an anonymous blogger named turd by denizens of this site while the door of your cell is slowly being closed by a group of elitist power brokers is nothing short of childish foolishness.

jjscrap said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
stephanie said...

Jeanne, you are lying, you were not banned, you were warned...(I just checked, your account isn't even on moderated...yet...)

Rather, it seems that when you were called out on who YOU were, you chose to run away with your tail between your legs. Until you can show the exact same transparency you are demanding of Turd, and that would include letting us know who you are and who is funding your site, then you don't have much credibility. So answer this, please:

WHO ARE YOU? AND WHO FUNDS YOUR SITE?

PS I originally gave you the benefit of the doubt when you said you weren't "out to get Turd" when you responded to my other comments here. But your behavior on TFMR today totally shows that you have an agenda.

Shill said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Shill said...

Actually I am deleting my comment, I left that place on my own free will...and glad I did, no loss.And I care not of any of it to be honest lol. Following the doomers cost me a ton of money, now I am making more money these days since leaving and thinking for myself...so again no animosity...I could careless.

Warren James said...

.. missed all the action that happened overnight .. officially vilified - ouch.

@Rick, yeah - understood, and agree. For what it's worth, It's more to do with that framework of accountability and responsibility - doesn't currently exist. We would like it to exist in relation to precious metals because we care about gold and silver being the last refuge. But just because Wynter Benton stopped writing doesn't mean that their interests went away. In the broad spectrum of information analysis, some party must ask questions .. looks like that fell to us this round. Martin Armstrong has a really good article out which talks a bit more about the Hunt Brothers and Buffet, along with the fraud in the banking system as a comment on the libor scandal. It's really decent, as it deals with history http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/banking-manipulations-a-systemic-problem/. Do you honestly think that these banksters went away and would not try to infiltrate the precious metals circles using the new social media bloom of the last few years? That is a given! So the only question is what is the color and the shape?

@Stephanie, Screwtape Files University is funded by ourselves - runs at a loss, we all do it as hobby writing - sorry to disappoint. The core of our joint effort is to generally have fun and critically examine the metals markets and information about them. We got taken in by Wynter Benton originally (2011), since debunked and recognise the need for critical analysis on metals information flows. Wild claims require wild verification and wild challenges: Turd has consistently refused to acknowledge some core silver market issues in deference of his 'sources', which I think is why all this stuff has bubbled to the surface**. btw, my name is real !! Yes I'm real, down here! (crap, no one is listening). I live in Australia and I've got nothing at all to hide.

@Everyone, we apologise in general for chewing everyone's wires, but please don't drop your guard. I think it's good that Turd disclosed the other party behind the new site (one might argue that we drove him to it) ... it was previously a hidden detail that may or may not have some bearing on the core message (we'll see). Anyway, Jeanne is locked in the cellar again for a while!

@Shill, I have some resonance with what you've said just above. Two years ago I nearly went all in on silver, thinking it to be the the path to salvation and great riches. I'm glad to have corrected my near mistake, as it's pretty evident now that many of the original silver claims (2010-2011 vintage) were pure bunkum.

** NOTE: This is not to say the current cup-and-handle formation (etc) won't give some great gains, it's just all that crap about silver being scarce might lead some to bad investment choices. A rookie investor might swallow the line that silver carries huge premiums when trying to buy in bulk (it doesn't) and mums & dad investors thinking that the ETF's are empty might get the wrong impression about where the fraud in the system really is.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

A very good comment, Warren. I see my efforts to calm things down after your Right and Wrong post have not gone well...

@Stephanie/Jane - That's rather unparliamentary language, Jane. I don't 'lie'. Each time I tried to post a reply on TF Metals Report it came up with a screen saying "access denied" or some such. Perhaps there was some other explanation than me having been blocked - I accept your word on this. Regardless, I haven't accused you or Turd of lying, and I have been perfectly civil at all times. Please, if you wish to post here, all I ask is that you do the same.

As Warren says, we have no sources of funding for this blog, except the salaries from our own personal day jobs, which are not connected with the financial world. In fact, the site costs us almost nothing apart from time in any case.

Anyway, I have now left a comment on the TFM thread which I hope you will take in the spirit in which it was intended. I will reproduce it below for the benefit of our readers.

JdA

Jeanne d'Arc said...

Turd/Turdites,

I would like to apologise for how events unfolded last night. I imagine that few will believe me, but I had absolutely no intention of 'hijacking' the thread, or of causing such a backlash.

To be clear, I think the issue I raised was a perfectly valid one, which is the question of why the fact that TurdTalksMetals is a business venture by Gonzalo Lira was never mentioned in the run-up to its launch (by either party), and why there is no reference to this arrangement on the site. Surely the obvious thing to do would have been to be open about this from the start and even to use this fact as an 'asset' for the new site. So I'm afraid I cannot apologise for raising this issue, as it was legitimate to do so.

But I am genuinely sorry that I probably did not go about it in the right way. I wanted Turd to explain the situation (which he has now done) rather than just writing a Screwtape post about it. But clearly this approach has led to a lot of bad feeling and a lot of recrimination, and I hope that you will accept that this was not my intention. I just wanted to get to the bottom of the matter. Contrary to popular opinion, I am not a 'troll': I am an author and journalist, and am motivated only by a desire to find out the truth of any given matter.

I would also like to clarify three other things that came up:

First, I did not 'run away' last night. Each time I tried to post a reply to some of the comments (to try to calm down the tone, in fact), I got a screen saying "Access Denied" or some such. I assumed I'd been blocked and went off to bed (as it was late where I live)

Second, I have no intention of revealing Turd's identity. That would be utterly irresponsible to both him and his family, and I am genuinely not "out to get him". As an anonymous blogger, I respect his anonymity.

Finally, please do bear in mind that the Screwtape Files is a loose collective of five different authors with five very different viewpoints. We are each responsible for our own posts, and have no say over the posts of the others. So please judge each of us on our own merits or otherwise. It is not fair or appropriate to target the other contributors for what I write. Please attack me and me alone for what I and I alone write.

Oh, and you may be interested to know that I will actually be leaving the metals blogosphere in a month or so, as I start a new project. So you can get the champagne on ice in Turdville... ;-)

Peace (no sarc)

JdA

Gary said...

Similar issues over at Fofoa's site of late.

He wasn't prepared to even comment on a query I raised very recently, won't bore you with the details, but he didn't even show up to discuss.

These guys are all about ego aren't they? I wonder how much he was paid for his recent mainstream media interview too?

Warren James said...

@Gary, yours at FOFOA's was observed. All about Ego? Motivations for public writing are incredibly complex, blogging is a relatively new form of media and many are finding their way. By and large, it's hardly a money spinner. Gonzalo Lira had an interesting piece on this last year (just finished reading it - trying to understand his perspectives).

Despite being in the sin bin at the minute, we are always explicitly open about our core motivations. I couldn't quite pin yours down .. are you referencing the need of a framework of accountability and responsibility?

mr pinnion said...

Gary.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pKv8SCoobE

Regards ozzy

Biosci said...

@Gary,

At what point is any blogger obligated to respond to a comment? It is also perhaps worth noting that much of your monologue on FOFOA occurred on July 4, a major US holiday.

@ the professors of STFU: just a word of thanks for providing an island of rational thought in an ocean of dogmatic belief. I am an avid reader of this site and a few others that try to keep the signal to noise ratio at a reasonable level. As a trained scientist, though with a highly varied background (s/o to VtC), I know the importance of challenging your own assumptions, and this blog is among the best at doing it.

/SleepingVillage/ said...

Jesus, Gary... speaking of ego. Did you ever think that maybe your tirade of questions weren't worthy of a response? Not YOU, Gary, but your questions and how you presented them.

I wouldn't know, because I skipped over most of your shit when you started with the smartass attitude routine...