Sunday pre-game, 12/2/2012

This is a huge week for gold and silver (also palladium; has anyone noticed its RSI is at 73?). I expect some dramatic price action. So many long term charts are at critical points.  I'm pretty much in cash except for some GLD puts I bought over the past week. 
Gold has to shit or get off the pot. Starting to look like it's rolling over:


Gold in euros looks better than $GOLD, but it too mustn't fall >2%



An important trend line will be broken on the $GOLD weekly chart if price drops below ~$1695



You can see that on this 1.5 yr chart, too. A drop below ~$1695 and it's a free fall. 


The $GOLD:$CRB chart, which I interpret as gold's "safe haven quotient" is also nearing critical parabolic support.


The $HUI has about 5% slack before it's free fall for it too.


The month of November did close more or less within my 40% trend channel, as I expected, but not a micrometer of slack.


Here's the monthly candlestick chart.
Silver has more slack, but the way $1 down days have become a weekly norm, it too looks very shaky. It couldn't break above it's Fibonacci fan 50% retracement. A drop below $32 would probably trigger a wave down to the $30.50 - $30.75 range, which should be a strong zone of support.

I don't expect a weekly close below the 34- and 55- wk MAs, but that's still 10%. Come to think of it, I'll buy some SLV puts Monday if price is flat.



14 comments:

S Roche said...

Interesting that your use of the EOD CME price for your Silver Fibonacci Fans gives a very clear negative signal...whereas the Netdania OTC charts do not give that signal at all.

Bugger! More complexity.

GM Jenkins said...

Right, in my silver post a few days ago I added the Fib fan on the Netdania weekly chart, and you're right. When do the days begin and end on Netdania? I've noted some discrepancies in the past, maybe that also contributes.

duggo said...

10 pretty charts. I'm impressed. I'm selling all of my Gold right now. I'll buy it back later when you give me the nod GM.

Must be soon though because the long-term Mayan chart seems to end in three weeks ;)

duggo said...

"Gold in euros looks better than $GOLD"

Am I the only one who thinks this sentence strange?
I notice a lot of people using charts say the same thing. To my mind what you are seeing is the relative difference between the value of currencies and nothing to do with Gold. Gold is not influencing the Euro. It's the $US that is. All "paper" currencies are jostling with each other while Gold is sitting on the sidelines reflecting how much can be bought with each currency at any given moment. I'm not going to say ooh Gold looks cheap in Euros so I'm going to change all of my $US into Euros and buy Gold. I'd lose out on the currency exchange.



S Roche said...

@GMJ,

I set my Netdania charts to London and that seems to work. You would (not) be surprised the number of times the chart is painted on the daily changeover. Often that will set the tenor for the day, until the US opens and then, likely as not, it becomes a dog's breakfast. Maybe that is because of the Comex chart differences.

I'll have to lift my game.

Sorry, Duggo, charts rule!

duggo said...

@ S Roche

Rule what exactly?

mr pinnion said...

"You can see that on this 1.5 yr chart, too. A drop below ~$1695 and it's a free fall. "

If it drops to $1670 ish and then shoots up 10+% say.Would that dent your faith in charts, or would you pencil in some more lines to make it all ok in hindsight?

"Gold in euros looks better than $GOLD, but it too mustn't fall >2%"

If it does fall >2% , and then stays there or goes up a lot ,will you forget you just said that and carry on charting as normal?

Time will tell.

Charts, farts
Ozzy

GM Jenkins said...

Would that dent your faith in charts

My faith I hold fast, and will not let it go: my heart shall not reproach me so long as I live. Let Mr. Pinnion be as the wicked, and he that riseth up against me as the unrighteous. For what is the hope of the chartless, though he hath gained, when Bernanke taketh away his soul?

GM Jenkins said...

Charts, farts

Actually I consider myself more a historian of gold prices than a lowly technician. And as Santayana said, "Those who do not learn from charts are condemned to repeat them."

GM Jenkins said...

If it drops to $1670

Although you have picked that number randomly without recourse to charts, Mr. Pinnion, coincidentally, I thought about drawing a horizontal support line there too, specifically at $1672.68 (-2.5 % from current levels). But I thought it was too visually obvious to justify the extra clutter.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

Sharp analysis, GM. I know everyone thinks I'm just a perma-bear, but I'll say it anyway: this all looks really ugly to me...

I don't just trade on charts, but also on a sense of momentum (which can, of course, also be mathematically described in charts and indicators), and it all just looks very, very sick to me for the PMs. I think I'll be taking profits (and closing entirely) my positions on my few remaining gold miners on (probably) Tuesday.

Still looking for a good entry point for gold. I arrogantly think I'll know it when I see it...

GLTA

JdA

duggo said...

"Actually I consider myself more a historian of gold prices" Spoken like a true "chart-man".

An expert study and grasp of history is a wonderful acquisition. It enables a person to have a grasp and expertise of .......err..... history.

I do take the point about someone who doesn't study history being bound to make the same mistakes. At this very moment I have my eyes scanning the Alpes for elephants. Hannibal won't catch me out this time around.

milamber said...

Admiral Greer: Excuse me, Jack, tell me one thing in life that is absolutely for certain.
Jack Ryan: My daughter's love.

Patriot Games (1992)

One doesn't make money betting, trading or investing on things that are absolutely certain.

Milamber


Milamber

S Roche said...

In keeping with literary giants and a daughter's love I thought of Lear, (William S. 1605)as a rebuttal but then, in terms of gambling and certainty I have always liked the advice Sky Masterton's ever-loving father bestowed upon him, (Runyon D. 1933), which became: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8Wvgs9q3js