Hullo, Screwtape types. It's been a long time. Did you miss me?
So, those of you with long memories will recall my post at the end of 2012, setting out the case for gold being about to enter a serious bear market. At the time, gold was at $1672/oz (woah - remember those days..?) and had put in rather a stinker of a year.
I pointed out the simple, almost trite, fact that anyone - ANYONE - who had advised you to buy gold during 2012 had been wrong. Not maliciously wrong, perhaps, but wrong anyway. And I thought that this fact should arm the future readers of the silverogosphere in 2013 when considering their next steps.
Also to this end, I challenged my most favourity blogger on metals, Mr Turd Ferguson, to put his money where his mouth was. Now, at this point, I should explain that there are some terrible misconceptions on the silverogosphere regarding the JdA - TF relationship. There are those who feel that they occasionally pick up on a slither of animosity, or even a degree of opprobrium. Nothing could be further from the truth. We are, in fact, very much in love, see each other regularly for deep, beautiful conversations late into the night, and are frequently to be found embraced in a lovely, healing cuddle. We would, I imagine, have eloped to Gretna Green long ago, if it were not for our desire to spare the Turdites the pain of losing their valued sage and mentor. Well, that, and the problem of his very, very, very tiny gentleman's equipment, of course.
Anyway, I digress. At the end of 2012, Turd felt that the fact that the S&P had outperformed gold (by a considerable margin, I should add) was an aberration and would not be repeated in 2013. I respectfully countered that this was
Sadly, Turd loses a bit of confidence here. Although sure enough of himself to tell his readers day in, day out that gold can only rise from now on, he was not prepared to bet $1672 on that proposition. A pity, really, as it would only have cost him around $1200 in the end anyway...
No sniggers here, please. I'm sure Turd does do a lot for charity, but he doesn't like to talk about it. Anyway, we settle on $100, given that is all Turd thinks his opinion is worth...
Now, I realise that the end of the calendar year is not yet upon us, but I'm going to go out on a limb and call this bet a few days early. Here are the figures so far:
S&P 31 Dec 2012 = 1426 ... 20 Dec 2013 = 1819 ... Increase = 27.6%
Gold 31 Dec 2012 = 1665 ... 20 Dec 2013 = 1203 ... Decrease = 27.7%*
Now, I imagine that a guest or two on KWN will soon be calling for a 56% increase in the price of gold in the last ten days of the year, but - and call me Mrs Pre-emptive if you wish - I am going to rule that out.
Time to pay up, Mr TF. Grateful if you could provide proof of your donation to Food for the Poor to the adjudicators (Louis Cypher and Purple Haze, as agreed). Or feel free to just post it on your site.
Now, would you like to repeat the bet for 2014? I am ready to do so. This year I feel especially confident: shall we say two gold coins? (Because you'll probably be able to pick them up for nearly the same price as one gold coin in September 2011 soon...)
Merry Christmas to all our readers, and a very happy New Year.
(* Yes - these unnervingly similar figures of 27.6 and 27.7% are, well, odd... I'm sure TF can come up with a decent conspiracy theory about it, though.)
[UPDATE - 23/12/2013: So, TF has graciously paid out. Fair play to him. Further, he has accepted a bet of $200 for our charities for next year. Same conditions as before - I'll take the S&P, and he'll take gold. Whichever performs the best (or least worst) wins.]