Sunday PM pre-game, 8/3/2014

 Hello friends -
As many have noticed, I'm still on an extended break.

At present, I'm not at liberty to reveal exactly what it is I've undertaken, but suffice it to say, I've found that the older I get, the less and less I worry about dying young.

Still I've found the time for a quick end-of-month chart dump. The most important chart is this one -- gold has fallen below its 20-30 week moving average ribbon. Buyers beware. Even though a move to $1350-60 may still be in the cards (based on some charts below the fold), that should be it -- so, risk is greater than reward here...









[note: larger versions of the following two charts are at the end of this post -- for some reason, clicking on them doesn't seem to work]
  I have started nibbling at equities, which I'll continue to do all the way down to the pertinent points on the exponential moving average envelopes above.

If anyone has questions about other charts, please ask away in the comments. I've added brief captions.
Compare this Dow Jones chart to similar monthly chart for gold below



10-yr yields measured in silver: turning up?


Gold in swiss francs
silver simply has to hit $22.15 or nothing doing. And not looking too promising.



89-week and 1.5 yr moving avgs for gold - a clear wedge forming. Which way will it break??


Regular readers will recognize that that purple line has been on this chart for 2 years. Looking important... 

Lame breakout on monthly. Not to be trusted, though the horizontal line may still be a target




I've been long 10-year treasuries since this the three-line break on this monthly chart. If yields don't add another red bar, it will be unprecedented (going back to 1980)
Last but not least, these 2 stand-bys.

In health-
GMJ



4 comments:

Gary said...

Sshh, they are all asleep.
Things about to get exciting and it's holiday time at STF.

Warren James said...

Hi Gary, we're still here, just a bit busy :)

Gold is still the same price it was six month ago. Exciting only if break above $1324 resistance or break below $1240 support. Keep us posted.

Gary said...

Yes, but the S&P is nearly 8% higher over the past 6 months, and HUI is outperforming gold by a wide margin.

One of these indices (HUI or S&P) is wrong, place your bets now.

IMO S&P (and risk generally) topping, HUI has been bottoming. Potential for between 300% and 800% gains in HUI over the next few years.

Eric Original said...

Nothing happening here, and it makes sense because there is nothing happening in metals either. Trendless and boring.