Figured I'd post an update since I started building a short position in gold and silver Friday. Simple idea: I will close it if gold crosses the 2-yr moving average on this monthly chart.
Here are some other charts that suggest to me that gold and silver are headed down before they are headed up in any meaningful way
It's been a year since I posted this chart, but nothing has changed: we are in the midst of a major correction, so it is unlikely that the 50% won't be hit on a monthly closing basis.
Then there's the stubborn "treasury yields in silver" chart we all know. Looks like it will cross by the end of 2015 (see convergence of line of best fit and other dotted lines in magnified box below), my guess is either very soon or in the fall.
That's all for now!